IT goes by a few names.
The Chas Brownlow Trophy, the Brownlow medal, or the one most-fondly used – Charlie.
The Brownlow is Australian sport’s most prestigious and recognisable individual award.
Awarded to the best and fairest player of the AFL, the Brownlow Medal is used as a defining characteristic for greatness in the AFL – it elevates the winner into the upper echelons of the sport’s elite.
Each week the umpires from the 23 home and away rounds award players votes on a 3-2-1 system. The player adjudged best afield getting the three votes.
What makes the Brownlow medal different from any other award, apart from the hundreds of specials and markets at CrownBet
, is the ‘fairest’ aspect.
Players who have been suspended throughout the year are deemed ineligible, and thus cannot win the award, irrespective of whether or not they amass the most votes by the end of the count.
Only twice in VFL/AFL history has a player polled the most votes and not taken out the award.
Corey McKernan missed out in 1996 after polling 26 votes – which would have made the North Melbourne ruckman a joint winner with Essendon’s James Hird and Brisbane’s Michael Voss.
Chris Grant in 1997 polled 27 votes which would have given the Western Bulldog a one-vote victory over St Kilda’s Robert Harvey – but a suspension ruled the centre half forward out.
The Brownlow medal count is held on the Monday of the week leading into the Grand Final with the CEO of the AFL reading out round-by-round votes for every match.
Fremantle Docker Nat Fyfe goes into the count as the shortest-priced favourite in the history of the count, but with the 24-year-old missing a number of games at the tail end of the season, there is no guarantee that Fyfe will be the man to take Charlie home.
With Fyfe as the hot favourite heading into the 2015 count, the average punter could be forgiven for thinking Fyfe has Charlie already around his neck.
However, if last year’s shock winner, West Coast’s, Matt Priddis, has taught us anything, it is that sporting awards – just like the games themselves – are never as predictable as they may seem.
Let’s take a look at the top 10 prospects going into Monday night’s count.
All Brownlow medal odds courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au
10. David Armitage – St Kilda
2015 Brownlow medal winner: $126.00
Top 3 finish: $23.00
Top 5 finish: $12.00
Top 10 finish: $4.50
David Armitage’s selection in the top-ten here might raise a few eyebrows, but the St Kilda on-baller’s season flew under the radar due to his side’s poor season.
The Saints midfielder made a dynamic start to the season, with 25 disposals in round one against the Giants his lowest tally of touches in the opening five weeks of football – with the 27-year-old gathering 35 or more touches three times across that period.
The favoured David Armitage bet:
His hot start gives him an outside chance to lead the count after round five with Fyfe out of the picture.
Sportsbet is offering $21.00 for Armitage to lead the count without Fyfe after round five.
Why Armitage can win it:
With an average of 28-disposals across the year, Armitage was a lone hand in the St Kilda engine room at times throughout the season and should not have too many players snatching votes from him, especially at the start of the season.
Why Armitage cannot win it:
Rarely does a team with just six wins to their name have the Brownlow medal winner amongst its ranks.
While Armitage has the capacity to amass votes in losses, he has only polled 21 votes from his previous 104 games.
The Saint midfielder has not shown a great capacity across his career to catch the umpires’ eye.
9. Scott Pendlebury – Collingwood
2015 Brownlow medal winner: $51.00
Top 3 finish: $14.00
Top 5 finish: $4.00
The Collingwood captain has just about every accolade one could covet in the AFL, except the Brownlow medal.
Is he a chance to take it home in 2015?
Probably not, but that does not mean he won’t find his name up amongst the leaders come the end of the night.
The Pies skipper battledinjury for much of the season, but he still was effective through the middle of the ground, especially in the early rounds when Collingwood was playing like a top-four team.
The favoured Scott Pendlebury bet:
With the Pies losing just one game in their opening five, Pendlebury is a big chance to be leading the count after five rounds without Fyfe in the picture.
Sportsbet has Scott Pendlebury as a $6.00 chance to be leading the count after round five without Fyfe.
Why Pendlebury can win it:
It is no secret – when Pendlebury plays well, Collingwood plays well.
Despite being hampered throughout much of the season, the Collingwood captain was still prolific, gathering the seventh most disposals across the year for the entire league.
Why Pendlebury cannot win it:
With an average second half of the year, the majority of Collingwood players will struggle to poll votes in the latter stages of the season.
Compound this with the re-emergence of Dane Swan as a midfield force, and Taylor Adams’ continual improvement throughout the season and we think Pendles will fight for votes.
8. Robbie Gray – Port Adelaide
2015 Brownlow medal winner: $51.00
Top 3 finish: $18.00
Top 5 finish: $8.00
Top 10 finish: $2.50
After elevating his game in 2014, Robbie Gray is certain to have attracted the umpires’ attention in 2015.
Despite a disappointing season from his club, Gray continued to be a dominant player for Port and in the AFL.
Gray ended the season ranked second for goal assists in the AFL and sixth league wide for both averaged contested possessions and clearances.
The favoured Robbie Gray bet:
With Gray only accumulating 14 votes last season, the poll more votes than last year bet with Sportsbet looks a safe one at $1.62.
Why Gray can win it:
The formerly mercurial Gray has become one of the AFL’s more reliable and consistent midfielders, single-handedly winning games off his own boot routinely.
While his club did not win as many games as last year, Gray was still at his dominant best, and with captain Travis Boak having a less impactful year, Gray would have attracted a lot more attention through the middle of the park.
Why Gray cannot win it:
With a poor season from his club, Gray will struggle to gather enough votes to truly be a threat in the count.
That, compounded by some spectacular performances from teammate Chad Wingard and Gray may have some opposition too when it comes to gaining three votes in the games the Power did win.
7. Josh Kennedy – Sydney
2015 Brownlow medal winner: $21.00
Top 3 finish: $5.00
Top 5 finish: $2.25
Top 10 finish: $1.20
After polling 21 votes last season, Josh Kennedy already proved himself to be a player capable of attracting the umpires’ attention, and 2015 should see the strongly-built midfielder take his vote tally to the next level.
Kennedy led the league in contested possessions and had a career-high 731 touches across the season.
His phenomenal second half of the season, which saw the former Hawk play 10 straight games with 30 or more disposals, should see Kennedy roar into contention at the business end of the count.
The favoured Josh Kennedy bet:
With his sparkling second half of the season in mind, the bet of Kennedy to poll the most votes in the last ten games of the season is an astute one, with Sportsbet offering $3.25 on the Swan to collect the most votes in the final ten rounds of the count.
Why Kennedy can win it:
Kennedy has proven to be a vote-collector in the past, and with Sydney finishing fourth at the conclusion of the home and away season, his team has won enough games to keep Kennedy in contention – if he was good enough.
A huge second half of the season will hold him in good stead too.
Why Kennedy cannot win it:
Kennedy’s midfield partner in crime Daniel Hannebery is one of the favourites for the medal and will be a constant threat for votes throughout the entirety of the season.
With a top four finish predicted for Hannebery in most betting markets, Kennedy would have to defy the odds to topple both his teammate and the field to walk away with the Charlie.
6. Sam Mitchell – Hawthorn
2015 Brownlow medal winner: $11.00
Top 3 finish: $2.75
Top 5 finish: $1.55
Top 10 finish: $1.03
Another magnificent year from Mitchell sees the former Hawthorn captain as a genuine threat to be in the top-three again in 2015 after finishing runner up twice across his decorated career.
Mitchell has already shown a propensity for amassing votes – he has the ninth-most votes in Brownlow medal history – and after gathering the sixth most possessions in the league, the 32-year old should be towards the top of the leader board by the end of the count.
The favoured Sam Mitchell bet
With his history of amassing votes and top-tier finishes it would not be surprising to see Mitchell towards the top.
Sportsbet are offering a 4.5 vote handicap on Mitchell in the elite player bracket at $10.00.
He is not without a chance.
Why Mitchell can win it:
Sam Mitchell is a big chance to take out the medal for a multitude of reasons.
With 12 games with 30 touches or more, a history of catching the umpires’ eye and Hawthorn’s top-four finish means Mitchell should be in contention to win it once again.
Why Mitchell cannot win it:
Missing two matches throughout the season will hurt the 32-year old’s chances, as well as several match day reports, which while they did not result in suspensions, may sour the umpires’ opinion of Mitchell in those particular games.
Read on in Part 2 of our Top 10 Bets for the 2015 Brownlow Medal.
