AFTER taking a look at the first half of our top 10 players to watch in the 2015 Brownlow Medal, we’re down to the business end.
These are the five guys we think will be leading the count at the end of the night.
Before you read on, take a look at how the list shaped up from 6-10 here and find some of the value odds of the night.
5. Patrick Dangerfield – Adelaide
2015 Brownlow medal winner: $8.00
Top 3 finish: $2.75
Top 5 finish: $1.50
Top 10 finish: $1.05
The league’s hottest free agent has just won Adelaide’s Best and Fairest, days after announcing he will leave the club in the summer. Could a Brownlow Medal be on the cards to complete a year filled with controversy?
With a proven history of accumulating votes – as reflected by the fact that Dangerfield has polled at least 20 votes in his last three seasons – and an improvement on his possession and tackle statistics from last year, the signs point towards another strong count from Danger.
Favoured Patrick Dangerfield bet:
Given Dangerfield’s ability to light up the field when he is on song, it is not uncommon for the ex-Crow to gather three votes rather than the two or the one when he does poll.
Sportsbet’s $11.00 for Dangerfield to have the most three vote games looks a great chance.
Why Dangerfield can win it:
A history of collecting votes, excellent performances throughout the year and an increase in his statistics all point towards another great year for the Danger.
With teammates Scott Thompson and Rory Sloane – the main danger to Patrick – both missing extended periods of the season, he may not have too many players taking votes off him either.
Why Dangerfield cannot win it:
Everyone loves Dangerfield, and he, unlike almost any other player in the AFL has their performances put up on a pedestal.
Will the umpires’ votes reflect the overall feeling of the wider AFL community? That remains to be seen, but sometimes people’s love for Danger clouds their judgement on how the votes will actually be awarded.
4. Todd Goldstein – North Melbourne
2015 Brownlow medal winner: $12.00
Top 3 finish: $4.25
Top 5 finish: $2.50
Top 10 finish: $1.10
After several years of consistently good football, North Melbourne ruckman Todd Goldstein took his game to the next level in 2015 with a brilliant season that has him in Brownlow Medal calculations.
The 2015 All-Australian ruckman averaged an incredible 44.5 hitouts per game this season on his way to breaking a 35-year old record for most hitouts in a season.
His around the ground work is where Goldstein has really excelled though, with 14.8 disposals per game unprecedented in the big man department across the AFL.
Favoured Todd Goldstein bet:
Goldstein, despite playing brilliantly for much of the season is still somewhat flying under the radar in the betting markets.
He is a big chance to not only finish top-three, but win the medal itself.
The top-three finish bet with Sportsbet at $4.25 is incredibly enticing and is a big chance of paying off come Monday night.
Why Goldstein can win it:
The Roos made the finals again this season, and much of it can be attributed to Goldstein.
The ruckman was dominant in almost every game he played in the ruck and was instrumental around the ground.
With no other Roo playing consistently good football across the year, Goldstein should get the lion’s share of votes for North Melbourne in 2015.
Why Goldstein cannot win it:
With a poor history in previous Brownlow medal counts, Goldstein may not be the most attractive player in the umpires’ estimations.
With the Brownlow medal now affectionately known as the ‘midfielder’s medal’, Goldstein will have a enormous job on his hands if he is to topple the midfield brigade who are all vying for the medal.
The last player who was not a midfielder to win the award was Bulldog Scott Wynd back in 1992, which again does not bode well for Goldstein’s chances.
3. Daniel Hannebery – Sydney
2015 Brownlow medal winner: $10.00
Top 5 finish: $1.55
Top 10 finish: $1.01
The prolific Swan had a down season in 2014, but came back with a vengeance in 2015.
Hannebery was second in the AFL for most disposals, averaged the most disposals across the year and was named the AFL Coaches Association’s player of the year.
With a history of polling votes and another terrific season, Hannebery is a big chance to take home Charlie on Monday night.
Favoured Daniel Hannebery bet:
Hannebery started the season with a point to prove, and prove it he did.
His first five rounds of the season saw the Swan gather 26 disposals or more across all five games at the beginning of the season, which will hold him in good stead to lead the count after five rounds.
Hannebery is $5.50 with Sportsbet to be leading the count without Fyfe after five rounds.
Why Hannebery can win it:
With a history of securing votes, collecting a ton of possessions across the year and with Sydney’s top-four finish, Hannebery again is set to be right in the mix towards the end of the season.
Could the blonde Swan pipping Fyfe at the post for the AFLCA’s player of the year award be an omen going into Brownlow night too?
Why Hannebery cannot win it:
The fact that he will be sharing votes with the teammate Josh Kennedy will count against him.
2. Nat Fyfe – Fremantle
2015 Brownlow medal winner: $2.00
Top 3 finish: $1.18
Top 5 finish: $1.03
Top 10 finish: No market offered
The superstar Docker has been the hot Brownlow medal favourite for much of the season, and anyone that witnessed Fyfe in full flight will have no reason to question that.
In his first nine matches Fyfe averaged 32 possessions, but it was not just his numbers, but the manner in which he was willing his side across the line which bodes well for the 24-year old.
An injury interrupted second half of the season is certain to slow down Fyfe towards the end of the count but he may already have enough votes in the bag to win the medal.
Favoured Nat Fyfe bet:
With Nat Fyfe’s stellar season and steer dominance that he displayed throughout, it will not be surprising to see him poll the maximum amount of votes in all the games he played well in.
The $1.53 on offer for Fyfe to have the most three vote games from Sportsbet is a sound investment.
Why Fyfe can win it:
Nat Fyfe was clearly the most dominant player for at least the first half of the season.
His numbers were unparalleled and his influence on games was remarkable, as reflected by the market which sees him as the shortest favourite in the history of the Brownlow.
Why Fyfe cannot win it:
This is unfair section given he is the hot favourite, but missing huge parts of the season will hamper Fyfe’s chances if he does not have a huge lead by around round 17 – where he is not predicted to gather another vote.
Even the games Fyfe played in towards the latter stages of the home and away season were not amongst his best.
Expect Fyfe to be overrun late in the count if he does not poll as many votes as expected in the opening half of the season.
1. Matt Priddis – West Coast
2015 Brownlow medal winner: $4.50
Top 5 finish: $1.30
Top 10 finish: $1.02
The 2014 Brownlow medallist was somewhat of a shock winner last season, but when you look at his numbers it is difficult to fathom why he was overlooked last season.
Unbelievably, Priddis’ statistics this year have improved significantly on the ones he generated in 2014, with increases in both disposals (he averaged an incredible 30) and clearances.
Could Priddis be the first player to go back-to-back since St Kilda’s Robert Harvey in 1997-98?
Favoured Matt Priddis bet:
With him being selected as the winner of the count in this analysis it would be remiss not to have him taking out the count with Nat Fyfe eliminated as a safe bet.
Matt Priddis is $2.75 with Sportsbet to tally the most votes with Fyfe out.
Why Priddis can win it:
Priddis has a proven track record of amassing votes, his numbers are better than last season and West Coast finished second on the ladder.
It all points to Priddis having another productive count come Monday.
Why Priddis cannot win it:
The only thing that may count against the West Coast champ is the increase in productivity of fellow Eagle on-baller Andrew Gaff.
Gaff had a breakout season and may take votes off Priddis throughout the year, which could hurt the 30-year old’s chances of emulating Robert Harvey’s back-to-back success.
Brownlow medal specials:
Being one of the most popular nights on the Australian sporting calendar, the bookmakers have come to the party to offer a multitude of specials to add extra flavour to the AFL’s night of nights.
Crownbet are running their Crownlow promotion.
The Crownlow gives punters the opportunity to select one of three players from nine field positions.
The player the punter selects is the one they think will poll the most votes out of the three to choose from.
With up to $100,000 in cash to be won the Crownlow promotion is set to be as popular the count itself on Monday night.
Sportsbet is running a ‘second to Fyfe special’.
Fremantle superstar Nat Fyfe – who has been the Brownlow medal favourite since the opening month of football – is an even money favourite to take Charlie home on Monday.
To make it more interesting, Sportsbet are offering cash back – up to $100 – for those who place a bet on the market but have their selection run second to Fyfe the favourite.
William Hill is offering an in-play on the Brownlow promotion on Monday night.
Have a bet in Play on the 2015 AFL Brownlow Medal Winner market and if your player finishes in second place William Hill will give you your money back – up to $50.
