AFTER an opening week of the finals that left us all wanting more, the second stage of the 2015 finals series has rolled around with two terrific match ups.
The Hawks were stung last week by an atypical lacklustre performance against the Eagles, but face stiff opposition in the form for the Crows for the right to face the Dockers next week.
The Roos condemned the Tigers to their third straight elimination final exit and this week have the Swans to contend with – a team that could very well be playing in a preliminary final if they could have converted more of their shots at goal.
If you are looking to place a head-to-head bet on this weekend’s action Sportsbet is the place to go, with up to $100 cash back if your team lead at any break but lose the match.
Hawthorn vs. Adelaide
Friday, September 18th, Melbourne Cricket Ground, 7:50pm
Hawthorn – (-23.5) $1.92
Adelaide – (+23.5) $1.92 at Sportsbet.com.au
Last time they met: Hawthorn comfortably defeats Adelaide in South Australia by 29 points back in round 12 despite a game-high 32 disposals from Scott Thompson.
First semi-final of the week sees the Hawks hosting the Crows in a cut-throat match to earn the right to face the Dockers for a place in the 2015 AFL Grand Final.
The Hawks were blown away by the Eagles last Friday night at Domain Stadium, and have a myriad of problems going into this week’s match.
Versatile attacker Jack Gunston will miss at least this week’s match with an ankle injury which adds further stress to a forward line that failed to kick 10 goals last week against a depleted Eagles black line.
Along with Gunston, Will Langford has made way after a poor performance in the qualifying final.
Young speedster Billy Hartung gets his chance to impress on Friday night while Ryan Schoenmakers replaces Gunston up forward for what could be his last game for the Hawks.
The Crows were fantastic last week against the Bulldogs last week after starting the game incredibly slowly.
Adelaide conceded the first three goals of the match and looked slow and out of sorts, but eventually the travelling Crows fought their way back and registered one of the best finals wins in the last decade.
There has only been one change for the Crows this week with Jarryd Lyons making his way into the team for Rory Atkins, who has been omitted after being substituted last week.
The last time the two teams met in a final it was an absolute epic, with the Hawks falling behind late in the last quarter only to claw their way back and register a famous preliminary final win in 2012.
It’s a big week for:
Hawthorn – Brian Lake and Luke Hodge
The last two Norm Smith medallists will be keen to atone after their poor performances and will both be fired up to make an impact against the Crows.
Lake was a liability at times in the Hawthorn backline, while Hodge failed to impact the match until late in the contest when the game was already over.
Hodge in particular needs to put aside his off-field issues and lead his team from the front to get them back to the preliminary final.
Adelaide – Josh Jenkins
Jenkins had a limited impact against the Western Bulldogs with just nine disposals and no scoreboard impact.
With Eddie Betts and Taylor Walker combining for eight goals last week, the Crows were able to carry Jenkins, but Adelaide will need to find other avenues to goal if ‘Tex’ and Eddie are shut down.
Who will win and why?
Both teams have legitimate claims to progress through to the preliminary final here, which is why it promises to be such an enthralling contest.
The midfield is where the match will be won and lost, with Dangerfield, Sloane and Thompson coming up against Lewis, Mitchell and Hodge.
The Hawks struggled to contain the Eagles last week, with the home side chalking up 26 scoring shots, and with a multi-faceted Adelaide attack on Friday night looming; the Hawks defence will need to improve significantly.
The Crows will not get anywhere near the freedom that the Dogs afforded them last week.
It is going to be another entertaining match, and while it has been a wild ride for the Crows this year, the Hawks know how to win finals and should have too much experience when it matters most.
Tip: Hawthorn to win 1-39 points $2.20 via Sportsbet
Exotic: Most disposals group 1 – Jordan Lewis $5.00 via Sportsbet
Swans vs. Kangaroos
Saturday, September 19th, ANZ Stadium, 7:20pm
Sydney – (-10.5) $1.92
North Melbourne – (+10.5) $1.92
The second semi-final of the weekend takes place in Sydney at ANZ Stadium with the Swans hosting the Kangaroos for the right to travel west to face the Eagles in next week’s preliminary final.
The Swans were gallant last week and had every opportunity to bury the Dockers late in the match.
Wayward kicking (18 behinds for the match) cost the travelling Sydney a chance to advance straight through to the preliminary final and now they have to do it the hard way.
Swans coach John Longmire faces another tough week at the selection table this week, with Sam Reid’s hamstring injury ruling him out for the remainder of the year, while Lance Franklin has confirmed he will not play again this season.
Captain Kieran Jack and Luke Parker failed to overcome their injuries, but will be potentially available if the Swans are able to advance through to the preliminary final.
In positive news, All-Australian defender Nick Smith returns for the Swans, replacing Sam Reid in the line-up.
North Melbourne were terrific last week against the Tigers, overturning a four goal deficit in the second quarter to record a famous 17-point victory.
The off-season acquisitions of Jarrad Waite and Shaun Higgins may have raised eyebrows prior to the commencement of the season, but both men played a pivotal role in helping the Roos defeat the Tigers.
Waite in particular was magnificent, kicking a game-high four goals and taking eight marks in a best-on-ground performance.
The Roos midfield was also dynamic, with veteran Brent Harvey turning back the clock with a vintage performance around the ball that complemented the grunt work of Andrew Swallow and Ben Cunnington.
North Melbourne will take an unchanged line up into this week’s match up and will be confident the same 22 will be able to topple the Swans.
It’s a big week for
Sydney – Gary Rohan
The red headed speedster has failed to fire a shot in the last two finals he has played now, and question marks are lingering over whether or not Rohan has what it takes under the finals spotlight.
At his best Rohan’s quickness, evasiveness and goal sense makes him one of the more dynamic players in the competition, but he needs reduce the gap between his best and his worst.
At his best Rohan can be a game winner – the Swans will be hoping he produces to his optimum on Saturday night.
North Melbourne – Lindsay Thomas
Thomas was North’s sub last week and made an immediate impact for the wrong reasons, giving away a maniacal 50 metre penalty at a crucial moment in the game – kicking Dylan Grimes in the chest.
Thomas was able to redeem himself later in the match, kicking a last quarter goal that sealed victory for the Roos.
There is every chance Thomas will start this week and he will need to limit the moments of lunacy and impact the scoreboard like coach Brad Scott knows he can if the Roos are to progress through to meet the Eagles.
Who will win and why?
It is a battle between the walking wounded and the red-hot Roos at the Sydney venue the Swans least like to play at.
The Swans will have their energy sapped after playing in testing conditions while also contending with the longest road trip in the game.
Kieran Jack and Luke Parker were unable to prove their fitness ahead of this week’s vital clash, so again the midfield work will be left to Josh Kennedy and Daniel Hannenbury.
With a lot of blue collar on-ballers, as well as the outside class of Harvey and McMillion should hold the Roos in great stead to again progress from an elimination final through to a preliminary final.
Expect the Roos to advance to face the Eagles in Perth for a chance to play in the 2015 Grand Final.
Tip: North Melbourne to win $2.50 via William Hill
Exotic: Most disposals group 2 – Andrew Swallow $4.00 via Sportsbet
