Perth Wildcats vs. Melbourne United. Friday, January 29, 9:35pm. Perth Arena.
IT doesn’t get better than this; a top-of-the-table clash against the Perth Wildcats and Melbourne United this Friday night.
Perth sit atop of the 2015/2016 NBL ladder with 16 wins from 24 games and they have got there on the back on good teamwork from the likes of Matthew Knight, Damian Martin and Jermaine Beal.
Perth arguably have the best five-man team in the NBL and they’re showing just how good they can be. After suffering a losing streak, the Wildcats have rebounded with three consecutive wins which included a 23-point thrashing of the Illawarra Hawks two games ago.
Melbourne’s season has been going well also and they will be looking to rebound after a dismal fourth quarter against the Adelaide 36ers. They had won their previous four games and their 30-point win over Cairns was simply outstanding.
Both teams have the ability to catch fire and that makes the third game of Friday’s triple header very enticing. Bookmakers have sided with Perth after they beat Melbourne by 30 points the last time these two met at Perth Arena, but there’s much more at stake now.
Wildcats vs. United points start betting and tips
Sportsbet.com.au are giving Melbourne United a +5.5 head start which could be the best betting option. Revenge games are popular with bettors and Melbourne will be seeking to avenge their 30-point loss when they last played in Perth.
Wildcats (-5.5) – $1.90
United (+5.5) – $1.90 with Sportsbet
Melbourne’s best scorer Chris Goulding started the season on fire and possibly a touch angry for not making the NBA, but his scoring has gone off the radar and he’s no longer in the top five scorers in the league.
United will need a solid performance from either Goulding or point guard Stephen Holt if they are to topple Perth at home, but we think they’re due and the points start of +5.5 is well within their reach.
Sportsbet are also offering an alternate points start margin of +10.5 for both teams. Perth aren’t worth it at $1.04 and not even the stoutest multi-bet punter would include that option, but Melbourne +10.5 at $1.37 is worth an inclusion in multi’s.
Wildcats vs. United exotic betting
The Tribet option could provide some good value for punters thinking that Melbourne will cover the 5.5 spread and still lose the game.
Perth Over 5.5 – $1.85
Either team Under 5.5 – $2.69
Melbourne Over 5.5 – $5.35
If either Perth or Melbourne win by less than six points, punters will get $2.69 which is good value. It’s not an easy bet to hit, but the odds are generous and worth a try.
The total points odd/even market is effectively a coin toss, but exotic bettors don’t seem to mind. Both even and odd are paying $1.90 and the best part of this bet is that the action will come down to the very last play.
We think Melbourne are a chance to lead at halftime. CrownBet.com.au are offering $2.64 for United to be leading Perth at halftime and they are a very good chance. United tend to start their games well and fade in the fourth quarter, so this option could provide some value for exotic punters.
Keys to the game
We like Melbourne to cover the +5.5 spread, but one of their superstars will have to step up their game. Either Stephen Holt or Chris Goulding need to get hot and the start of the game is key for both players.
If they can knock down open shots early then that will pave the way for Holt to drive to the rim later in the game. Big Majok Majok should be able to get inside the paint if this happens and that’s a big key to the game for United.
If Perth are to cover the spread, they will need to continue to play as a unit. They thrive on team cohesion and their big men inside the paint. With the likes of Knight and Martin controlling the key, that opens up the outside shooting area for Jermaine Beal who absolutely went bang against Melbourne last time they met.
This game should be close if everything goes to plan, so stick with Melbourne +5.5 at $1.90 with Sportsbet.
