Sunday, October 25, 2015, 3pm AEDT, Watch on Nine Network
Ladder position
Illawarra Hawks: Fourth
Perth Wildcats: Second
Season Record
Illawarra Hawks: 2-2
Perth Wildcats: 2-0
TRADITIONAL NBL powerhouse Perth is one of only two teams left without a loss in just the third week of the season.
The Wildcats ($2.15 with Sportsbet.com.au) have won both their early season contests and will take that unbeaten record into a clash with the improved Illawarra Hawks ($1.70) with Sportsbet.com.au) on Sunday afternoon.
A change back to their original name from Wollongong appears to have helped the Hawks… well, that and the fact they had a bumper off season recruiting drive that has significantly increased the talent pool at the Sandpit.
They only won six games last year, but, four games into the new season, they have already won a third of that number and are on the up.
After opening the season with back to back losses, the Hawks found their groove on the weekend, first hammering last year’s NBL champions New Zealand Breakers 96-75 and then backed that up with a win over the Sydney Kings, 100-86.
The NBL’s leading scorer Kirk Penney was unconscious against the Blaze, shredding his former club with 36 points which featured seven treys that led the Hawks to victory without star import Kevin Lisch or the talented Rhys Martin.
While Penney could not miss, AJ Ogilvy continued to prove why he is one of the signings of the season with a 23 point, 10 rebound double double, to go with a pair of blocks in the rout.
That pair combined for 59 points, more than had the Hawks’ total.
Two days later, it was veteran captain Oscar Forman who had his shot going, the big man emulating Ogivy with a double double, 24 points and 10 rebounds, including six of seven from the outside.
Ogilvy himself had his way with his former club, filling the stat sheet with 15 points, nine boards, six dimes and four blocks in about as good an all round game as you’ll see from a big fella in the NBL.
Penney had a quiet night by his standards with 16 points, but the versatile Tim Coenraad dropped 18, five and three.
‘’These guys are showing tremendous character,’’ Illawarra head coach Rob Beveridge said.
‘’Ossie’s (Forman) one of the greatest shooters you’ll ever see and he put on a show today.’’
The Wildcats, meanwhile, have stepped out twice for two wins in the early going, opening up by smashing the Adelaide 36ers, 79-66, before eking out a thriller against the Breakers, 83-80 on the weekend.
With the match tight early in the last term against the Sixers, the Wildcats turned on the jets and closed the game with a 16-3 run to claim the win.
“We embraced the instinct,” gun import Jermaine Beal said.
“Adelaide like to run and gun, we just had to get back on defence.”
Beal led the way in the clutch for the Wildcats, scoring several of the last 16 points.
“With the game on the line I just wanted to come down and make a play,” Beal said.
He dropped 18 points to go with four boards, while Australian Boomer Nathan Jawai had 15, six and three, and Matthew Knight ripped down 10 boards.
The well rested Wildcats backed up a week later, with Beal again the most important player on the floor.
‘Dolla’ Beal hit a big jumper to break the deadlock late in the fourth, then iced the game from the free throw line.
He starred again with 19 points, while Matthew Knight recorded a double-double with 14 points and 12 rebounds.
“He’s just rock solid,” said Trevor Gleeson of Matthew Knight. “He’s had his best pre-season and he’s going to have his best year no question.”
Jesse Wagstaff came off the bench to register 14 points, while import Casey Prather scored 11 points to go along with four rebounds and five assists.
Rookie of the Year candidate Jarrod Kenny hit probably the biggest shot of the game, opening up a buffer with a three pointer thanks to a dish from Beal.
The Wildcats will only get better when veteran Damian Martin makes his return, potentially against the Hawks.
“Hopefully we’ll get him on the court earlier in the week,” Gleeson said of Martin.
“I’m anticipating that he can play.”
Bela has ice flowing through his veins and his 18.5 points per game is good enough for third in the competition.
“I just want to do whatever I can to help the team win,” Beal said.
“I just play off of instinct, if I’m open I’ll shoot and if not I’ll pass to an open player.
“I just want to win.
“Our main focus is us.
“We don’t really listen to what other teams are doing, we just try to focus on our game plan.
“I’ve got confidence in everybody in the team.”
It is the only game of the weekend for the Hawks, but the Wildcats will have to back up from a home game against the Townsville Crocodiles on Friday night.
It’s not clear whether or not import Lisch will take to the floor against the Wildcats. The former NBL Most Valuable Player was hammered in a screen from Cairns big man Alex Loughton and has subsequently missed the last three contests with a damaged knee.
Predictions and line betting analysis
Match result: Illawarra Hawks win ($1.70 with Sportsbet.com.au)
Line: Illawarra Hawks -1.5 ($1.85 with Sportsbet.com.au)
NBL teams get quickly used to playing back to backs. But the Wildcats are yet to do so and will be on the back end of their second game for the weekend when they take on the Hawks. That, in itself, gives the tough as nails Hawks some points. Add to that a rabid crowd support at the Sandpit and a star studded line up that has the ability to take it to any side in the NBL and you have a recipe for winning.
We’ll admit that we’ve been guilty of under estimating the Wildcats in previous years and we would not be the least bit surprised to see them with a record of 4-0 at the end of the weekend, but we feel like the Hawks showed enough in their back to back wins to indicate that they are a significant challenger that should be able to account for the title second favourites on their day.
We’d love to see Lisch playing, but we think there is the talent with the likes of scoring machine Penney, veteran Forman and star big man Ogilvy leading the way for the Hawks. Martin would be a huge in for the Wildcats, but they have the cover. Illawarra must shut down Beal and fellow import Casey Prather, as well as the giant Jawai and Knight – good luck.
As far as the line goes, we reckon the Hawks are going to win, so they have the pluses. They covered their lines against both the Breakers and the Kings on the weekend and, while this match up is far tougher than that pair of teams, the hawks should be able to keep this one close – remember the Breakers have been getting whacked by teams, but managed to keep the margin to just three points against the Wildcats last time out.
Stick with the Hawks at decent odds and let’s hope one of the big three goes off.
