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Ladder position
North Melbourne: Eighth
Port Adelaide: Ninth
Season record
North Melbourne: 10-5
Port Adelaide: 7-8
Last five match results
North Melbourne: WLLLL
Port Adelaide: WLLWL
Head-to-head odds
North Melbourne: $1.36 with CrownBet.com.au
Port Adelaide: $3.20
Line betting
North Melbourne: -17.5 ($1.90 with Sportsbet.com.au)
Port Adelaide: +17.5 ($1.90)
HOW the mighty have fallen.
North Melbourne’s remarkable unbeaten streak to start the season is now but a memory, four straight losses knocking them from top perch to eighth and putting their finals hopes in some jeopardy.
A month ago, everyone was talking about them as premiership contenders.
Now they are wondering if they could miss the finals after a horror run with injury.
They face a Port Adelaide side that has been hot and cold most of the year but, when it all boils down to it, isn’t that good.
It would be a disaster if the Roos lost this one in Melbourne, but that is not beyond the realm of possibility, depending on which Power side turns up.
If the run-and-gun, fast-moving, hard-tackling Power side that has only reared its head in spurts this season steps out on the Etihad turf, North will be up to their eyeballs.
If not, the Kangas should have an easy win.
Good news is expected out of Arden Street, with the loss of young gun Mason Wood offset by the imminent returns of midfield star Daniel Wells and gun forward Jarrad Waite.
They need them – badly.
Questions are being asked over older stagers like Drew Petrie and Nick Dal Santo, both of whom need to respond if the Roos are to stand up and be counted.
The Kangas had plenty to play for on their trip to Perth, but never really turned up in a 16.8 (104) to 11.6 (72) loss to the West Coast.
Down at every change, Sam Gibson was the Roos’ chief contributor with 29 disposals, while in-form big man Ben Brown played a lone hand up forward with four goals.
He did his best to keep them in it, but he had very little help.
The curly-haired behemoth is our pick for first goalscorer for the Roos. He leads hard, marks well and is a genuine target for North Melbourne’s midfield.
He is rated a $9 chance in the early first goalscorer market at Sportsbet.
There is no market yet for Waite, but, if he does happen to make his return, he is worth a look. He has a point to prove after fading out of form following a hot start to the season and then suffering injury.
On the possession front, captain Andrew Swallow is slowly building after being poleaxed against the Cats a couple of weeks ago.
He had 20 against Adelaide and 25 on the weekend. While he isn’t a true ball magnet, he can be prolific on his day, loves playing at Etihad and, at $2.80 to have 25 or more, looks like good value.
Port’s hot and cold season continued against Hawthorn on the weekend.
They played some great footy in the first half, leading at quarter time and going into the long break within a kick, but it all fell apart after the half.
The Hawks booted six goals to two in the third quarter to kill off the contest.
Port then rallied late to reduce the margin to 22 points, 15.11 (101) to 12.7 (79).
The Power forward line functioned really well, led by Chad Wingard’s three goals. He found support in Robbie Gray, Jay Schulz, Ollie Wines and Karl Amon, who each booted two goals.
Gray was dynamite, finishing with 29 disposals to go with his pair of goals, while Matthew Broadbent stood tall across half back with 28.
Wines had 25, but captain Travis Boak was again down with 23 – a return that is becoming the norm, rather than the exception.
We’re not touching Boak in the possession market. We’d prefer a bite of the $1.53 about Wines to nab 25 or more disposals. The midfield nugget is in good form, having eclipsed that mark in three of his past four, and should go well against the Roos.
Big forward Charlie Dixon has gone goalless twice in the past five weeks, booting just five in that period. The Power would not be happy with the output of their high-priced recruit.
He needs to produce something against the Roos and we reckon Etihad, under the roof, might suit his skills.
We’re picking him to snap out of his funk in the best way possible and boot the first goal of the match at $12 with Sportsbet.com.au.
Kangaroos vs. Power player exotic tips
First goalscorer
North Melbourne – Ben Brown ($9)
Port Adelaide – Charlie Dixon ($12)
Most disposals
North Melbourne – Andrew Swallow to have 25 disposals or more ($2.80)
Port Adelaide – Ollie Wines to have 25 disposals or more ($1.53)
Odds provided by Sportsbet.com.au
Match predictions
Match result: North Melbourne to win ($1.36)
Line betting: Port Adelaide +17.5 ($1.90)
The Kangaroos are instantly better with Waite and Wells back in the fold. Even if those two don’t play, North should be able to ease over the line in this one.
Port have a bit to play for here – a win would trim the gap between eighth and ninth on the ladder from 12 points to eight – but it’s a tough trip to Etihad and the Roos will be desperate to ensure they don’t put their finals hopes at risk.
You almost feel like Port’s top end is better than North’s, but the Kangaroos have a better spread of contributors and that should get them over the line.
