Saturday, August 13 from 2.10pm AEST at the MCG. Watch on Fox Footy.
Ladder position:
Hawthorn Hawks: First
North Melbourne Kangaroos: Eighth
Season record:
Hawthorn Hawks: 15-4
North Melbourne Kangaroos: 12-7
Last five match results:
Hawthorn Hawks: WWWWL
North Melbourne Kangaroos: LLWWL
Head-to-head odds:
Hawthorn Hawks: $1.37 with CrownBet.com.au
North Melbourne Kangaroos: $3.10 with Sportsbet.com.au
Line betting:
Hawthorn Hawks: -20.5 ($1.92 with sportsbet.com.au)
North Melbourne Kangaroos: +20.5 ($1.92 with sportsbet.com.au)
WAS it the loss they had to have, or is there something much deeper going on at Hawthorn.
The three time reigning premiers take on struggling North Melbourne after a loss to lowly Melbourne that made them look anything but contenders for the 2016 AFL flag.
It was, in fact remarkable.
Throughout the game, the Dees stuck with the Hawks, but there was an air of inevitability that the Hawks would eventually take control and run away with it.
And it looked like they would do exactly that when they hit the front early in the last quarter.
Then, the unthinkable happened.
Melbourne grabbed the game by the scruff of the throat and throttled the Hawks, piling on the last five goals, finishing with plenty of running and perhaps putting the crowning glory on the Paul Roos reign in a 29 point win 17.8 (110) to 11.15 (81).
The Melbourne players and supporters could barely comprehend what had happened and neither could the Hawks, who will need to somehow find something better if they are to topple the Kangaroos.
Cyril Rioli had only 15 touches, but he was at his destructive best – just about every one of those was a score involvement and he booted four goals to go along with a ridiculous 12 tackles.
Rioli looms large as the Hawks first goal kicker, rated a $9 chance with sportsbet.com.au.
He has been on a tear, booting 17 goals in his past six contests to bring himself to 38 for the year.
It is already his best regular season return and we reckon there are plenty more in store.
Captain Luke Hodge continues to age like a fine wine, picking up 27 disposals to lead the way with his mate Sam Mitchell, while Isaac Smith had 26 touches and booted two goals in a rare game where he actually made an impact in a loss.
Smith is a short $1.17 to get 20 or more disposals against North, but you can just about bank it.
He has not had less than 20 in the past six weeks and only gone under that mark three times in the whole season.
The best player on the ground in the Dees clash, though, was Melbourne ruckman Max Gawn, who exposed the Hawks’ weak ruck stocks.
It was like Ben McEvoy and Jonathon Cellar were not even there as the bearded one did as he wanted.
It doesn’t get any easier at the ruck contest against the Roos, with the premier big man in the competition, Todd Goldstein, looming.
Goldstein turned it on the Kangaroos disappointing loss to the Dogs on the weekend, with 19 disposals and 35 hitouts, but his side lost big man Ben Brown to injury early and the Roos attack simply fell apart from there, booting only seven goals in the 9.7 (61) to 7.5 (45) loss.
North’s midfield was first rate, led by 30 possessions to Jamie MacMillan, 29 to Nick Dal Santo, 28 to Sam Gibson, 27 to Ben Cunnington and 25 to Andrew Swallow.
Dal Santo has been consistently busting the 25 disposal mark this season, especially in the past few weeks and the $1.30 about him to do so again looks skinny, but worthwhile.
Neither the Roos, nor the Dogs had multiple goal scorers in the match.
That leaves the first goal scorer market against the Hawks wide open for the Roos.
While none of the forwards distinguished themselves against the Dogs, with a question mark over Brown, much of the onus could fall upon fading big man Drew Petrie.
After weeks of pressure, he had a great game in Boomer’s record breaking match against St Kilda and he will need to do so again if they Roos are going to be any chance of winning this contest.
Player props predictions
First goal scorer – Hawthorn Hawks
Cyril Rioli to kick the first goal of the match ($9 with sportsbet.com.au)
First goal scorer – North Melbourne Kangaroos
Drew Petrie to kick the first goal of the match ($13 with sportsbet.com.au)
Disposal tips – Hawthorn Hawks
Isaac Smith to have 20 disposals or more ($1.17 with sportsbet.com.au)
Disposal tips – North Melbourne Kangaroos
Nick Dal Santo to have 25 disposals to more ($1.30 with sportsbet.com.au)
Match predictions
Match result: Hawthorn Hawks win ($1.36 with CrownBet.com.au)
Line betting: North Melbourne Kangaroos +20.5 ($1.92 with sportsbet.com.au)
Noone expects the Kangaroos to win here and neither do we, but they can enhance their faint finals claims with a strong performance against the Hawks. You would expect the top side to account for a side in eighth that has been starved for success after nine straight wins to open the season. The Hawks really need to win, otherwise they will concede top spot, so we’re tipping them in a tight one.
