Saturday, December 26, 2015, 10.30am AEDT, Melbourne Cricket Ground, watch on Nine Network
IT is hard to write a betting preview of a cricket match when you already know the result.
I guess the good thing about that is, you know you’re going to win.
Well, at least if the heavens don’t intervene.
Make no mistake, Australia – rated a $1.06 chance with WilliamHill.com.au – is going to win this test, and win it well.
The Windies have been given no hope at $26 with sportsbet.com.au, while the draw is also a tough sell at $14, but it might be worth a tiny drink if you think the weather gods might speak.
The build up to this Test for the Aussies is all about Ussie.
The gun New South Welshman, who appears to have turned his career around by fixing the technical deficiencies that plagued him early on in the international scene, is almost certain of winning a recall after he was passed fit to play and promptly crashed a ton for the Sydney Sixers in the Big Bash League.
He had peeled off two centuries in his first three innings after being recalled to the Australian team, but he spent five weeks out after injuring his hamstring in the series against New Zealand.
His return means one of Joe Burns or Shaun Marsh are likely to miss out.
“It sucks. There’s no other way to put it,” Khawaja said when asked about the situation.
“You’re mates with everyone in the team and you know how it feels to be dropped.
“If I do come into the team someone has to be dropped.
”It’s never a nice thing, but I guess that’s part and parcel of the game. I’ve been on the other side of that too.
“It’s kind of accepted when you can see what’s happening and you can sort of see it coming.
”To be honest you try not to worry about it too much.
“The longer I’ve been in the game I’ve realised you don’t need to worry about selections because it’s out of your control.
“You can only go out three and do what you can with the team and if it’s meant to be it’s meant to be.”
Marsh would be extremely stiff if he were to be dropped after compiling 182 against the West Indies in the first Test.
The Australians pummelled the West Indian attack to all parts of Blundstone Arena, amassing a mammoth 4 (declared) for 583.
It was good mates Adam Voges and Marsh who did the majority of the damage, belting a record partnership for the fourth wicket of 449 runs.
It was Voges, though, who was the star, hammering 33 boundaries in his majestic knock of 269 off 285 balls, the highest score ever hit in a Tasmanian Test.
David Warner set the tone early with 64 off 61 balls that included 44 runs in boundaries.
Left arm orthodox Jomel Warrican was the only bowler to have any impact, picking up 3/158 off 28 overs.
In reply, only veteran Windies top order bat Darren Bravo fired a shot, slapping 20 boundaries in his 108, with only tail ender Kemar Roach (31) providing any resistance of note as the Calypso Kings were dismissed for 223.
Boom seamer Josh Hazlewood claimed 4/45 and spinner Nathan Lyon snared 3/43 to do the majority of the damage between them.
Forced to follow on, the Windies raised the white flag early on, although Kraigg Brathwaite deserves plaudits for his dogged 94, he was last man out, six runs short of his century, with team managing a pitiful 148.
It doesn’t get any easier for the Windies, with the Aussies possessing a supreme record at the home of cricket.
Merry Christmas.
The Aussies do have an injury worry of their own, with captain Steve Smith in the wars. He has been suffering from hip and knee complaints and was held out of the Sydney Sixers first two Big Bash League games.
The desolate Windies will need to tap into a well that doesn’t contain a pile of talent capable of competing with the Aussies.
They seem incapable of taking wickets, even against a second string Victorian side in a two day game over the weekend, the only nabbed four scalps.
And, depending on how the pitch is expected to play, leggie Devendra Bishoo, who claimed two of the four to fall, could come into calculations.
“He bowled better,” Windies coach Phil Simmons said.
“There was a lot more drive in his deliveries and everything like that.
“We’ll see what happens over the next three days and we’ll see what the MCG wicket is like, then we can make a decision about the combination we’re going with.”
Simmons was not pleased with the weekend’s two day game, saying he would have preferred a longer test for his side..
“When I saw the amount of days in between (11, between the first test and Boxing Day) I asked that we have at least a four-day game,” Simmons said.
“I would love to have had a four day game where we could bowl properly and play a proper game, like we did up in Brisbane (to start the tour).
“That’s what I would have been happy with … a two-day game is not ideal.”
With many of the Victorians competing in the Big Bash, the Windies were left with a team of Premier cricketers to battle.
“I would have loved a first team but the Big Bash has just started so it was always going to be hard,” Simmons said.
“You’d always prefer to get better games.
“When people come to us now … our A-team will always play the visiting team and that’s the sort of competition I would like when we go outside the West Indies.”
Match predictions
Match result: Australia wins ($1.06 with WilliamHill.com.au)
Highest opening partnership: Australia ($1.23 with WilliamHill.com.au)
Does this have to be a three test series? What’s going to happen here is Australia is going to step out onto the hallowed turf, chew up, then spit out the West Indies. One thing the Windies could do to help themselves is have more than one batsman stand up and be counted in their innings. A couple of half tons here and there to support whoever really gets going would go a long way toward getting near some sort of competitive total. The only way we see this game getting into a fourth day is if the Aussies bat for the first two days – they’ll make about 800 if they do that. It’s not exactly great cricket for the purist, but if you’re a fan of watching batting performances exacerbated by some sub standard opposition, then this test will be a delight. Whether it’s Warner and Burns or Warner and Khawaja or Warner and Marsh at the top of the order, it would be foolish to bet against the Aussies kicking off with the highest opening partnership. The Windies lack penetration with the ball and it will be a case of getting themselves out.
Top run scorer predictions
Australia
Usman Khawaja ($5 with WilliamHill.com.au)
Back in the test team and back in the runs. Khawaja is a gun who appears ready to join Warner and Smith at the elite level. He clobbered the New Zealand attack and these Windies aren’t even in their class. Spent five weeks out and smacked a ton in his first dig back. Ripe for runs. Do recommend.
Adam Voges ($5 with WilliamHill.com.au)
Speaking of ripe for runs, Voges has hit a purple patch. In his past four tests, he has innings’ of 83 not out, 119 and the mammoth unbeaten 269 in his last outing against the West Indies that has taken his test average to a tick under 77. That’s ridiculous. Any way, this guy made his test debut at 35 and he has had his knockers, but you can’t argue with runs.
West Indies
Kraigg Brathwaite ($4.75 with WilliamHill.com.au)
The guy that spells both his first name and last name wrong is just 23, but already has four tons in 25 tests to his name. Showed what he was capable of by scoring nearly two thirds of the Windies second innings runs with 94 in their capitulation and should be better for the run.
Darren Bravo ($3.75 with WilliamHill.com.au)
Bravo, Darren. Probably the current West Indies side’s best bat, which he showed with a determined ton in the first test, which was the seventh of his career. Despite the Windies struggles, he averages 41 at the level and knows how to play an Australian attack – even if it doesn’t always come off.
Top wicket taker predictions
Australia
James Pattinson ($3.25 with WilliamHill.com.au)
Junior Patto is a gun who is set to partner with Mitchell Starc – when he returns from injury – as Australia’s new ball pair of the future. After spending months on the sidelines and going wicketless in the first innings on his returns, Pattinson bagged five wickets in the Windies’ second dig and will be hungry for more. They can’t handle his pace.
West Indies
Jomel Warrican ($4.25 with WilliamHill.com.au)
Three wickets in just his second test against a side that only lost four in the match is good going for a 23 year old still learning his craft. Warrican did cop some stick from the Aussies – which West Indian bowler didn’t – but he kept fighting back and got more reward than any other bowler. The MCG deck can often take spin after the quicks have finished tearing it up and we reckon – Bishoo or no Bishoo – this kid really has the goods.
