Perth vs. New Zealand, Friday, October 16 from 6.30pm at Perth Arena.
THE Perth Wildcats ($1.35 with CrownBet.com.au) host the New Zealand Breakers ($3.15 with Sportsbet.com.au) with both teams heading in different directions.
The Wildcats had to wait longer than any other team to play their first game of the season, but it was well worth the wait.
They traveled to Adelaide with only the preseason under their belt, but they came away with a hard-fought 79-66 win after trailing for most of the game.
The Breakers started their season with two stars which helped them secure their fourth NBL Championship last season, and those two losses have hurt them bad.
Ekene Ibekwe, who famously made the winning shot against Cairns in the final game last season, was released to Melbourne United this year and Breakers star Corey Webster is trying his hand in the NBA with the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Breakers, still with all-star Cedric Jackson, have been unable to gain any traction this season with two losses and one win.
They enter Perth Arena under fire, but their recent record against the Wildcats is good and that could give them the confidence to make a game of it.
Perth vs. New Zealand betting markets
Perth – $1.35 (-6.5)
New Zealand – $3.15 (+6.5)
The head-to-head markets are reflective of what we’ve seen so far this season. Perth looked good throughout their opening win and they should really be shorter in the head-to-head market, but New Zealand do have some things in their favour.
The Breakers have already played three games, compared to Perth’s one, and that team chemistry should work in their favour.
Perth have a few new imports in their team which looked a touch rusty last Saturday, but with more games under their belt, expect them to gel better within the Wildcat organisation.
Perth also welcome back captain Damian Martin who sat out their opening game with an injury. Martin is a key defender for the Wildcats and his presence will make a huge difference.
The points start market is where this game becomes a little more even. Covering a 6.5 start is tough when you’re playing the defending champions and the Wildcats will be calling on their home crowd to lift them up.
The Breakers have already played two road games this season, resulting in a 19-point loss to Adelaide and a 21-point loss to Illawarra on Wednesday night.
In order to win and/or cover the points start, New Zealand will need to be clicking much better than they have to date. Mika Vukona, who missed their 89-81 win over the Townsville Crocodiles at Vector Arena, will need to establish an inside presence to worry the talented Perth guards.
Perth vs. New Zealand form and value guides
The New Zealand Breakers have won their last four games against the Perth Wildcats, dating back to this time last year.
During that four-win stretch, the Breakers scored two wins at Perth Arena with the most recent win coming in overtime.
To counter their recent struggles against the Breakers, Perth have recruited well in the off-season and the Breakers look a shadow of their former self.
They signed Casey Prather from the University of Florida and in his senior year he led the Gators in scoring, averaging 13.8 points a game with an additional five rebounds. He took the Gators to the Final Four in 2014 and that experience will start to show throughout the season.
Damian Martin isn’t a new signing, but his addition to this team after missing Round 1 will be evident come Sunday. He is the captain of the side and his defensive skills are some of the best in the league.
That being said, backing Perth in the head-to-head market has proven expensive for punters. Over the past six games the Wildcats are -$2.84 in the head-to-head market and over the last 18 games they are -$5.48.
This is largely due to the fact they didn’t have a great season last year, by their standards, and they usually average a very short head-to-head price like we see here against the Breakers. If they start at $1.35 and lose, that impacts their betting record significantly.
Perth are also -$2.33 in the points spread market over the last 18 games as a result of their poor head-to-head record.
The Breakers have been a great bet for punters, but only in the head-to-head market. The New Zealand-based franchise are +$1.71 over their last six games and +$3.80 over their last 18.
With a line of $3.15 for this clash against Perth, that bodes well for value punters. We’re not suggesting that the Breakers are going to beat Perth, but if they pay $3.15 every game then the value punters will be making money in the long run.
Perth vs. New Zealand rosters and tips
Perth Wildcats:
Jermaine Beal – G
Greg Hire – F
Jarrod Kenny – G
Matt Knight – C
Nathan Jawai – F
Tom Jervis – C
Casey Prather – G
Jesse Wagstaff – F
Shawn Redhage – F
Damian Martin – G
New Zealand Breakers:
Cedric Jackson – G
Reuben Te Rangi – G
Tom Abercrombie – F
Duane Bailey – F
Mika Vukona – F
Charles Jackson – C
Alex Pledger – C
Tai Wesley – F
Everard Bartlett – G
The head-to-head line of $1.35 doesn’t inspire us as punters, but it looks good for multi-bet punters that want that added bonus for their payouts.
It’s hard to see Perth being beaten at home against the struggling Breakers and the -6.5 line could provide some value, despite what the recent statistics tell us.
With the likes of Martin, Beal and new import Prather, we’re expecting the Wildcats to win comfortably in their home debut.
