Frank Worrell Trophy First Test – Australia vs. West Indies betting preview, top run scorer and wicket taker tips
First Test: Thursday, December 10, 2015, Bellerive Oval, Hobart, Tasmania
Second Test: Saturday, December 26, 2015, Boxing Day, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Victoria
Third Test: Sunday, January 3, 2015, Sydney Cricket Ground, New South Wales
IF the odds are anything to go by, the West Indies’ trip Down Under for the Frank Worrell Trophy is going to be an arduous one.
Long and painful with very little success.
So dominant are they expected to be, the Australians, fresh of a series victory over New Zealand, are just $1.01 with sportsbet.com.au for a series win over a different looking West Indies side, which is a long $34.
Those hoping the weather might intervene across the three test series – and that probably includes the Calypso Kings – can get $21 for a drawn result.
The Windies are $1.07 to not win a test, indicating how lopsided this series is expected to be.
In the first Test, which begins at picturesque Bellerive Oval in Hobard on Thursday, you can get slightly better odds, with the Australians rated a still skinny $1.10 chance with sportsbet.com.au to knock over the visitors.
The Windies are $24, while the draw is $9. Big odds, but probably not so juicy, considering the Australian’s expected dominance.
And our friends at Sportsbet.com.au reckon gun bats Steve Smith and David Warner can beat the Windies off their own bats, releasing a market on whether they will score more runs than the entire West Indian batting line up.
They’re a $6 chance to do that over the three Test series.
With the domestic Big Bash Twenty 20 league running parallel with the test series, the bookie has also released a rather embarrassing market pitting the six West Indian players stepping out in that league against their compatriots in the Test arena.
They’re a $3.50 chance to combine for more runs and it’s no wonder when men like Chris Gayle and Dwayne Bravo are playing.
Those two are both better than any other batsman the West Indians will roll out against the Australians.
They even have a market on whether or not a Test will end within two days.
Surely it’s not possible? The odds of $17 reflect that, but the mere fact there’s a market for that is a fair indicator of how lopsided this series is expected to be.
If you think none of the West Indians are capable of making a ton in the series, the $2.15 looks like good value.
“The Aussie cricketers will be spending as much time on the golf course as they will be in the outfield by the looks of it,” the bookie’s Christian Jantzen mused.
The trip hasn’t started well for the Windies, a tour match against Cricket Australia’s XI ending in a 10 wicket loss.
The first innings 243 wasn’t a bad start, with Dwayne Bravo top scoring with 51 and Carlos Brathwaite 47.
Bit that’s about where the wheels fell off.
The CA XI crashed 444 on the back of nine scores over 20, with only captain Jason Holder fighting back with 4/76.
Rolled for 210 – Holder again leading the way with a fine 65 – the West Indians left a target of just 10 runs, which the CA XI achieved none down.
The Aussies are obviously coming off a batsman dominated series against the New Zealanders, which they won 2-0.
Gun opener David Warner was named man of the series for his mazing 592 runs in six innings at an average of nearly 100, including a career high score of 253, but the Aussie bats made some eight centuries between them.
Spearheads Mitch Starc and Josh Hazlewood nabbed 13 wickets each to be the best of the bowlers in a series dominated by the batsmen.
Possible teams
Australia: David Warner, Joe Burns, Steve Smith, Adam Voges, Shaun Marsh, Mitch Marsh, Peter Nevill, James Pattinson, Peter Siddle, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood
West Indies: Kraigg Brathwaite, Shai Hope, Darren Bravo, Marlon Samuels, Jermaine Blackwood, Denesh Ramdin, Jason Holder, Kemar Roach, Jerome Taylor, Devendra Bishoo, Jomel Warrican
Predictions
Series winner: Australia @ $1.01 with Sportsbet.com.au
Series correct score: Australia 3-0 @ $1.33 with Sportsbet.com.au
First Test Match result: Australia @ $1.10 with Sportsbet.com.au
Highest opening partnership: Australia @ $1.25 with Sportsbet.com.au
Forget winning the series, that’s not going to happen. But can the Windies win a Test? Yeah, probably not, but that won’t stop plenty of punters snapping up the juicy odds available across a variety of markets. I don’t care who they are, stranger things have happened and $24 in any sport is far too juicy to completely ignore. In all seriousness though, the Aussies simply do cricket better than the West Indians. This is a tale of two teams, one that has a history and tradition of being the best in the world against one whose days of challenging seem a million light years ago. Holder and the young Windies side might yet develop into something serviceable, but not in this series. And Bellerive could set the tone for the series. If they can somehow even make a competition out of it, perhaps they could sneak out a massive boil over later in the series. We’re not holding our breath, though.
Top run scorer
Australia
David Warner ($2.88 with sportsbet.com.au)
It’s not often you’ll see a batsman this short to make the most runs in an innings, but Warner’s ridiculous form, coupled with the inferior West Indian bowling attack, necessitates a skinny quote on the gun opener. But fear not, he’s skinny for a reason – he has all the tools to tear this West Indian attack apart and it’s hard to envisage him not scoring a mountain of runs in this series. He kicked off with a century against the New Zealanders and it would almost be a surprise if he didn’t do something similar against the Calypso Kings. If you don’t love Warner, then captain Smith is an equally inviting choice, rated a $3 chance. His series wasn’t as prolific as his past 18 months, but he is still the equal number one Test batsman in the world with England’s Joe Root.
Shaun Marsh ($9 with sportsbet.com.au)
Yes, we know, the safebookies.com team has an infatuation with the talented leftie that just hasn’t quite delivered on the big stage. Well, if he doesn’t do it in this series when given the opportunity, surely that is the end of him at Test level. This series will sort out whether this guy has a future in the world cricket arena, or whether he will go back and put up middling numbers on the domestic scene. He won’t have it any easier, batting down the order, coming in on the back of guys plundering the Windies all over the park. Let’s have a tiny drink on him at the $9 quote to do something with his Test life.
West Indies
Marlon Samuels ($4.33 with sportsbet.com.au)
The old stager is approaching 35, but he still looks like he is in his early 20s. And he bats that way as well, mixing moments of absolute brilliance with stretches of maddening mediocrity. Knows how to tear apart a bowling attack – even one as vaunted as the Australians – but is just as adept at getting himself out doing something silly. The curse of talent that he has never really mastered. Were backing him to have a moment of inspiration and lead the way for the West Indians.
Jason Holder ($11 with sportsbet.com.au)
This isn’t as stupid a bet as you might think. The Windies are not expected to make big scores, with the Aussie bowlers set to dominate the series. And that means there could be some opportunity for some lower order wagging or rear guard actions. Holder – the Richard Vandenberg of Test cricket – actually isn’t the worst with the bat. He made 65 in the embarrassing tour match and averages almost 30 in the Test arena. The Aussies don’t know a heap about and, at 24, he represents perhaps the brightest light in the West Indies bleak looking future. There’s every chance he’ll be trying to help them recover from five or six down for not many and his fighting qualities mean he’s worth a tiny drink, for differing reasons to Marsh.
Top wicket taker – first test, first innings
Australia
James Pattinson ($3.50)
Watch this speed demon burst back into Test cricket with a big bag against the hapless Windies. Has form coming back from injury and ripping through in his first roll. Just ask the Big Bash lead. Possesses fearsome pace and plenty of bounce that will make things very hard for the West Indians. Should take the new rock with Mitchell Johnson retired and Mitchell Starc on the injury rack. Let’s hope he can string together some games and get over the injury woes that have plagued him since his teenage years
Nathan Lyon ($4.33 with sportsbet.com.au)
Is he the best off spinner in Australian Test cricket history? The stats build a compelling case. The Windies aren’t traditionally known for their respect of spinners and a dearth of spinning talent in the country makes Lyon a trick match up for them. Comes off a fine series with 10 wickets against the New Zealanders and should have the class and guile to break through with a bag or two against the inferior Windies.
West Indies
Jason Holder ($4 with Sportsbet.com.au)
They say no one’s tougher than Jason and we’re subscribing to that theory and expecting the do it all captain to be last man to sink with his ship. We already think he’s a good chance to do the business with the bat, but it is with ball that he has been most effective – just not against Australia. He only has 19 wickets from his 10 tests all time, but averages something like 60 with the ball against the Aussies. He can go a long way to wresting that back a little with a bag in the first dig.
Jerome Taylor ($3.75 with sportsbet.com.au)
While Kemar Roach was once the spearhead of this attack, you get the feeling he hasn’t been quite right as he’s spent the past two years batting injury. it remains to be seen if he can recapture that form that made him one of the quickest bowlers in the world, but the Windies, luckily, have had Jerome Taylor to carry the load. Taylor cleaned up the Aussies in Trinidad with 6/47 and he will be the bowler they most fear, due to his ability to swing the ball both ways. Has 128 wickets at a slightly hefty 33, but, on his day, can skittle even the best batting line ups.
