LEADING trainer John O’Shea has warned punters about taking short odds around Bow Creek in the Group 1 Emirates Stakes at Flemington this Saturday.
The Godolphin five-year-old is an imported European runner which flew home late for second in the Group 2 Schweppes Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley.
The son of Shamardal opened that race at odds of $7, was backed in early to $4, but it drifted late to outrageous odds of $17. It will start much shorter than that this Saturday as Sportsbet.com.au have it at as the $4.80 favourite.
O’Shea is weary because stablemate Contributer also started at $4.80 last year and it was unplaced in the $1 million feature.
“You can’t take a short quote because I don’t know if he’s going to turn up,” O’Shea said.
“It’s a big ask for him second-up. If he was third-up I’d be saying yes get on him, but I just can’t be sure.
“He’s fitter than he was the other day and I’m happy with him but I’m still learning about the horse.”
The track conditions for Saturday are likely to be soft-to-heavy, but Bow Creek shouldn’t be bothered by track conditions according to O’Shea.
“It shouldn’t matter what the track conditions are going off his overseas form,” O’Shea said.
“A soft or heavy track won’t worry him.”
Most punters that took the short and long odds in the Crystal Mile believe it should have won, after it received a poor run in transit.
“In my opinion he should have won first-up,” O’Shea said.
“Strawberry Boy fell back in his face. He’s never run a bad race in his life old Strawberry Boy, so James [McDonald] was entitled to follow him.”
2015 Emirates Stakes betting picture
The current favourite for the Group 1 Emirates Stakes is the John O’Shea-trained Bow Creek which finished an unlucky second last time out.
It is closely followed by German import Magic Artist which looked a certainty beaten in the Group 1 Mackinnon and that form should well and truly stack up for this.
The Andreas Wohler-trained horse has already won a Group 3 this year and has been Group 1 placed, so the $6 for the Emirates Stakes looks like good value for punters that expect another big run second-up in Australia.
The cracking field features the likes of Lucky Hussler, Turn Me Loose and Disposition which are all under double-figure odds, but punters are getting great value for those runners. Lucky Hussler was a very good winner two back and Turn Me Loose is coming off back-to-back wins including the Seymour Cup.
Disposition is a classy runner for Lee and Anthony Freedman which loves Flemington and we didn’t think we’d see it paying $9 again this spring.
2015 Emirates Stakes market:
1. Lucky Hussler – $7.50
2. Arod – $11
3. Turn Me Loose – $7.50
4. Bow Creek – $4.80
5. Disposition – $9 at Sportsbet.com.au
6. Magic Artist – $6
7. Ecuador – $34
8. Messene – $51
9. Moriarty – $67
10. Amovatio – $21
11. Politeness – $11
12. Sons Of John – $34
13. May’s Dream – $21
14. Rock Sturdy – $18
15. Coronation Shallan – $101
16. He Or She – $15
We think any of the first six runners can take it out this year. There is value with Lucky Hussler, Turn Me Loose and Disposition, but we’re not counting out the class factor surrounding both Bow Creek and Magic Artist, but they are both second up.
Arod turned in a poor performance in the Cox Plate and it sweated up badly prior to the jump. With more time under its belt in Australia and softer track conditions expected, it looks a more genuine chance in this at $11 with CrownBet.com.au.
