Where: Twickenham Stadium, Twickenham, England
When: Monday, 26th October, 2:00am AEDST
MONDAY morning is the day of reckoning for Australia as the Wallabies prepare to face the Pumas for the right to contest the 2015 Rugby World Cup grand final.
While on paper it may seem like the world number two Wallabies will have no problems sweeping aside the Argentinians, the fourth placed Pumas will provide a more than adequate challenge.
The Aussies cannot afford to take in the same nonchalant attitude that they took in against the Scots, as the Pumas are a far more formidable match up.
Recent head-to-head form
The Australians have experienced terrific head-to-head form over their Argentinean counterparts.
Even though the Aussies have won six of the last seven contests between the two, flattering record has sometimes belied just how close the contests have been.
Their sole 2015 match up saw the Wallabies defeat the Pumas by 25 points in Argentina, but, in their meeting prior to that, Argentina shocked the Aussies in South America, winning by 10.
Before that too, four of the five match ups between the sides had been decided by 10 points or less.
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Form leading into the semi-final
Both teams have had some strong wins heading into their semi-final clash, with the Wallabies and the Pumas recording some crushing victories en route to the penultimate match in the RWC.
Argentina Form:
Sun Sep 20th, Pool C, New Zealand 26-16 Argentina, Wembley
Fri Sep 25th, Pool C, Argentina 54-9 Georgia, Gloucester
Sun Oct 4th, Pool C, Argentina 45-16 Tonga, Leicester
Sun Oct 11th, Pool C, Argentina 64-19 Namibia, Leicester
Sun 18th Oct Quarter Final Ireland 20-43 Argentina, Cardiff
It seemed like it would be a dream start to the Argentina RWC campaign when the Pumas led the All-Blacks throughout the first half of their pool match, but it was not to be, with the reigning champs proving too strong for them.
That loss did nothing to dent the spirit of the number four team in the world though, with resounding victories over Georgia and Tonga setting the platform for a stirring 23 point victory over the Irish in Cardiff to secure their passage through to the semi-final.
Argentinian rugby has experienced an upturn in recent years, and with the Pumas competing in a pre-World Cup tournament with New Zealand and Australia.
Pumas’ coach Pablo Bouza believes they are in the best possible position to progress through to their first ever RWC final.
‘I think playing in the Rugby Championship for us has been great.’ Bouza said.
‘The players used to play against New Zealand far less frequently. Before you would play them every six or seven years, and now they have played 10 matches against them in four years.
‘For the players, and for us as coaches, we are always learning when they play against New Zealand. So the Rugby Championship has been something great for us.’
Australia form:
Wed Sep 23rd, Pool A, Australia 28-13 Fiji, Cardiff
Sun Sep 27th Pool A, Australia 65-3 Uruguay, Birmingham
Sat 3rd Oct, Pool A, England 13-33 Australia, Twickenham
Sat Oct 10th, Pool A, Australia 15-6 Wales, Twickenham
Sun 18th Oct Quarter Final Australia 35-34 Scotland, Twickenham
Up until the quarter final match up against the Scottish, Australia had been fantastic in their RWC campaign.
Comfortable victories over Fiji and Uruguay, as well as a crushing win over bitter rivals England sent the Wallabies to the top of pool A.
The Aussies rounded out the pool matches with a scrappy yet professional win over the Welsh.
Their quarter-final match up against Scotland was a different story.
The Wallabies game was riddled with errors, including an ill-conceived chip kick by Bernard Foley which led to a Scottish try late in the match handing them a seemingly game winning lead.
However, the man they call ‘The Iceman’ was handed a last minute reprieve to save the Aussies from an humiliating defeat, scoring the go-ahead penalty kick to ensure the Wallabies had a safe passage through to face the Pumas.
Star Wallaby Matt Giteau said the Australians will not make the same mistake they made against the Scottish in underestimating their opponent.
‘They’re incredibly dangerous,’ Giteau said.
‘You saw what they did to Ireland and how far they pushed New Zealand in the first game. They’ve blown teams away quite easily. You can’t underestimate them. We won’t underestimate them. It just won’t happen.’
Who will win and why:
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Line bet: Australia -6.5 $1.92
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Winning margin: Australia to win by 1-12 points $2.50
Two time World Cup winners Australia comes up against the fourth placed Argentina in a match to determine who will play off for the Rugby World Cup title in 2015.
The Aussies have gone through the tournament undefeated, but this supremacy has belied just how difficult it has been for the Wallabies.
A last minute penalty kick against Scotland saved the Aussies from an embarrassing early tournament departure.
Star Wallabies David Pocock and Israel Folau are no certainties to take the field in Monday’s crunch game, with coach Michael Cheika not prepared to take any chances with two of his best players.
‘Often with (those injuries) it’s about the return to play and how you manage it, because if you don’t it will recur’ Cheika said.
‘We’ve been really conscious of that and making sure we don’t push too hard.
‘We’re in the last 12 to 13 days now, we know we’ve got the groundwork done, so we don’t need to push anyone, we just need to make sure everyone’s right.’
The Argentinians have shown some of their best form in 2015 at the right time, winning their last four matches, including a strong 23 point victory over the Irish in their last outing.
Their explosive style has left some teams on the back foot, with their ability to score fast points throwing even the most solid game plans into disarray.
The problem for the Wallabies so far this tournament has been finding the right balance between attack and defence.
The Aussies piled 65 points against Uruguay in their second pool match, but only managed one try against Wales just two games later.
Their defensive showing against the Scottish was subpar too, allowing 34 points to a team that failed to score that many points in their previous three meetings with the Wallabies.
The Australians are the superior team here – if they show up with the right mindset they should not have too many problems progressing through to the final.
If they take in the same blasé attitude that led to the near defeat at the hands of Scotland however, and the Pumas might not be so forgiving.
Expect the Wallabies to progress through to the RWC final in a tight contest.
