WE’RE starting to get to the real stuff now – preliminary final weekend.
This is where we find out who has what it takes to take the next step towards premiership glory.
This year both prelims are in Western Australia for the first time ever.
The Hawks and the Dockers renew hostilities on Friday night, which is set to be a tight and tough affair, while the Eagles host the Roos on Saturday night in what many pundits are expecting to be a high-scoring shoot-out.
If you are looking to place a head-to-head bet on this weekend’s action Sportsbet are running an AFL week three finals special – Place a bet on any of the two matches across the weekend, and if your team losses cash back up to $100.
Dockers vs. Hawks
Friday, September 25th, Domain Stadium, 8:20pm
Fremantle – (+9.5) $1.92
Hawthorn – (-9.5) $1.92
Last time they met:
Hawthorn made a statement in round 15 with a comprehensive 72-point thrashing of the ladder leaders.
Match analysis:
The first preliminary final sees the 2013 Grand Finalists meet in a match to determine who will be the first team to progress through to the biggest stage of them all.
Hawthorn comes into the game after dismantling the Adelaide Crows at the MCG, making an emphatic statement in the process.
The game was over at quarter time and the reigning premiers coasted to the line to book a date with the Dockers at Domain Stadium.
Fremantle will have the benefit of a week off after they survived a qualifying final scare against the Swans.
Much of the news this week revolved around Ryan Crowley and whether or not Fremantle coach Ross Lyon would pick the super-stopper after his ASADA suspension ended during the week.
The Dockers elected not to pick Crowley – who has missed the entire season up until this point – but did recall tall forward Matt Taberner and ruckman Jonathan Griffin.
Clancee Pearce and Zac Clarke are the two men that make way for the inclusions.
Ross Lyon will also be sweating on the availability of All-Australian defender Luke McPharlin.
McPharlin has not played since round 22 and is no certainty to take the field if the Dockers are able to make their way past the Hawks.
Hawthorn take an unchanged line up over to Perth with coach Alistair Clarkson choosing not to select last year’s finals bolter Will Langford after an impressive showing in the VFL.
Jack Gunston also failed to make his way back into the side, with his ankle injury set to keep him on the sidelines for at least another week.
The big preliminary final questions:
Are the Hawks medium sized defenders good enough to shut down the Dockers’ dynamic duo?
The match will potentially be won and lost in Fremantle’s forward line.
A fortnight ago Michael Walters and Hayden Ballantyne combined to kick six of Fremantle’s ten goals for the match, and Sydney had no defensive answers with All-Australian defender Nick Smith out of the line-up.
The Hawks have more flexibility in their backline than the Swans, with Ben Stratton, Josh Gibson and James Frawley all capable of playing on both talls and smalls.
A big game is needed from the enigmatic Ballantyne and Walters if the Dockers are to prevail.
Who can stop the Rough?
The Hawks were terrific last week despite a quiet game from Jarryd Roughead, but the forward did jag some second half goals that will add some much needed confidence to the Coleman medallist’s arsenal going into Friday night.
With Luke McPharlin out there is a strong possibility Roughead will play closer to goal with Zac Dawson his likely opponent.
If Dawson is unable to quell the influence of Rough, then Ross Lyon will have a big problem on his hands.
Who wins and why
With two powerful midfield teams plying their trade through the centre, the game will be won and lost in the middle.
The Dockers will have to rely on ruckman Aaron Sandliands to win the majority of the taps, and will be hoping Nat Fyfe and David Mundy can give their forwards first use.
Matthew Pavlich needs a big game.
The man they call ‘super Pav’ had a subpar outing against the Swans, but the Fremantle captain will benefit greatly from the week off and should be raring to go.
The Dockers defenders will have their hands full trying to contain the Hawks’ smalls this week, with Luke Breust especially recapturing his best work last week against the Crows with five goals.
The absence of McPharlin is a big blow to the Dockers, but is somewhat negated by Jack Gunston’s failure to make the side.
This promises to be a slugfest and an arm wrestle for the majority of the match – a situation Ross Lyon teams have always thrived in.
Expect the Dockers to beat the Hawks into submission and grind out a win on their way to just their second ever Grand Final berth.
Tip: Fremantle to win $2.35 via Sportsbet
Exotic: Most possessions group 1 – Nat Fyfe $4.00 via Sportsbet
Eagles vs. Kangaroos
Saturday, September 26th, Domain Stadium, 7:45pm
West Coast – (-30.5) $1.92
North Melbourne – (+30.5) $1.92
Last time they met:
The Kangaroos defied the odds back in round 10 to record a ten point victory over the high flying Eagles.
Match analysis:
The Perth preliminary final weekend continues on Saturday with the premiership favourite Eagles hosting the Kangaroos at Domain Stadium.
The Kangaroos defied the odds for a second year running, climbing their way from a cut-throat elimination final all the way through to a preliminary final.
They are the first team in VFL/AFL history to play off in a prelim after finishing eighth and for the second year in a row they will travel interstate to compete for a spot in the 2015 Grand Final.
The Roos were terrific last week, overcoming the 2014 Grand Finalists Sydney at ANZ Stadium in a gutsy win that gives them real faith that they could potentially cause the upset of the season.
The Eagles are well rested after discarding Hawthorn in the opening week of the finals, and will regain both reigning Brownlow medallist Matt Priddis and fellow on-baller Chris Masten for the vital clash.
Vice-captain Scott Selwood and Patrick McGinnity have both been omitted.
The Roos have recalled Robbie Tarrant after the strongly built defender was a last minute withdrawal from the match last week.
Robbie Tarrant’s semi-final replacement from that match, Luke McDonald is the player set to make way.
North Melbourne will be hoping to replicate the form they showed in their last visit to Domain Stadium against the Eagles where the Roos recorded a 38-point victory.
The big preliminary final questions:
Do the Roos have any hope of shutting down Coleman medallist Josh Kennedy?
The 2015 Coleman medallist has been dynamic this season, and while both teams have an abundance of talent in their forward lines; Kennedy is the most capable of winning a match single-handedly.
Scott Thompson is the obvious match up for Kennedy, but with a below average season for the veteran Roo, coach Brad Scott may turn to Robbie Tarrant if Kennedy gets on top of Thompson early.
The job for the Roos is simple: shut down Kennedy or kiss the Grand Final goodbye.
Sometimes jobs are easier in theory then they are in practise.
Does Jarrad Waite have another great finals performance in him?
North coach Brad Scott drew the ire of a lot of North Melbourne fans after his contentious decision to recruit former Blue Jarrad Waite in 2014; but the enigmatic forward is vindicating Scott’s selection.
After his best-on-ground performance against the Tigers in the first final – where he booted four crucial goals – the 32-year old again contributed on the scoreboard last week, kicking three goals to be the leading goal-scorer on the ground.
If North Melbourne is to make it through to their first Grand Final since 1999, Waite will have to play a pivotal role in getting them across the line.
Who wins and why:
After a strong performance through the middle of the ground for the Roos, the North on-ball brigade will face a much sterner test.
The Swans were depleted through the centre of the ground last week, but North this week will face a midfield littered with top-line talent.
Much will come down to the battle between the ruckman.
West Coast’s Nic Naitanui was a surprise omission from the All-Australian team during the week, and the man that secured a berth; North’s Todd Goldstein will be his opponent on Saturday night.
Goldstein is close to one of the only players in the AFL capable of matching it with Naitanui, and whoever wins that battle and gives their on-ballers first use will have a huge say in the outcome of the match.
While their second half of the season has been impressive and the experience of failure on the same stage last year will spur them on to go one better, it is hard to see the Roos toppling the Eagles in the West.
Expect the Eagles to win comfortably en route to their first Grand Final in almost a decade.
Tip: West Coast to win $1.20 via William Hill
