WHAT an amazing week it has been in Australian politics.
Much-maligned Prime Minister Tony Abbott copped the knife from rival Liberal stalwart Malcolm Turnbull.
The bombshell leadership spill cost Abbott his job, 54 votes to 44 in the Liberal Party rooms, making what is clearly seen by many punters as a positive change.
Going from one of the most despised men in politics to one the most popular can tend to work wonders for a party’s chances of winning an election.
And that’s exactly what’s happened for the Liberal Government, according to our friends at WilliamHill.com.au, who have stunningly paid out on the Coalition to win the next election, more than two years after the market opened.
The funds were fired into punters’ accounts less than 24 hours after Turnbull was declared the country’s new Prime Minister.
“The voters might not have much of a say as to who is in the top job anymore, but WilliamHill has already rewarded those who backed a Coalition victory at the next election, by paying out the result in full,” said WilliamHill.com.au spokesman Tim Ashworth.
“It’s the first time a bookmaker in Australia has paid out on a Prime Minister winning an election during his first full day in office.
“The market opened over two years ago, and due to the volatile nature of politics in the country these days, it’s been a market that has been closely monitored by punters and pundits alike.
“Twenty four hours is a long time in politics and the morning before the spill we had (Labor leader) Bill Shorten as favourite to be Prime Minister after the next election.
“But now punters believe a Turnbull led Coalition will guide the government to success when we next go to the polls.”
Turnbull is talking like he’s already won.
“We were at real risk of losing next year’s election to Bill Shorten,” Turnbull said.
“That would be a catastrophe for Australia, and it was a very difficult decision for all of us who’ve served with Mr Abbott and respect him.”
The crew over at sportsbet.com.au agrees, backing the Coalition to win 85 seats to Labor’s 61.
The bookie’s Ben Bulmer expects Turnbull’s ascension to the Prime Minister’s office to not only save the furniture but deliver a resounding victory.
The bookie has released odds for each of the 150 Federal seats, predicting a significant turn around for the Coalition.
The Coalition is now likely to lose a total of five seats, with Petrie, Capricornia, Solomon, Hindmarsh, Bonner and Hasluck tipped to go, while Clive Palmer’s seat of Fairfax is favoured to head back to the Coalition.
The remaining cross-benchers including Bob Katter ($1.20), Andrew Wilkie ($1.15), Cathy McGowan ($1.30) and Adam Bandt ($1.20) are favoured to hold their seats.
“Malcolm Turnbull has put the Coalition back in the box seat, a marked turnaround from the start of the week when it looked like the Coalition could lose up to 16 seats and its majority in the House of Representatives,” Bulmer said.
He said punters had plunged more than 10 times the money on the Coalition to win the next election than that of Labor.
“As a result, Labor has drifted to $2.90 to win the next election, after starting at $2.15 before the spill, while the Coalition has shortened into $1.40, after starting at $1.73,” he said.
“Since news broke that the leadership challenge was on, punters have not been able to get enough of the Coalition.
“Money is flowing to the Coalition to win the next election at a rate of 10 to one.”
Sportsbet has also released a market on when the next election will be, with a call for one later this year high on the agenda.
Bulmer said punters believe Turnbull will attempt to capitalise on his popularity and call an early election this year.
“The majority of punters are predicting the next Federal Election to be held in 2015, with October ($8) and November ($10) the preferred months,” Bulmer said.
“If Turnbull decides to call an election next year, punters are backing March ($6) or September ($4) as the most likely dates.”
Abbott is not usually known for being graceful, but he bowed out with a strong speech that did not attack the new leader.
“Leadership changes are never easy for our country,” Abbott said.
“My pledge is to make this change as easy as I can.
“There will be no wrecking, no undermining, and no sniping.
“I’ve never leaked or backgrounded against anyone.
“And I certainly won’t start now.
“This is a tough day, but when you join the game, you accept the rules.
“Being the Prime Minister is not an end in itself – it’s about the people you serve.”
“I am proud of what the Abbott Government has achieved. We stayed focused despite the white-anting.
“The nature of politics has changed in the past decade.
“A febrile media culture has developed that rewards treachery.”
Turnbull, while on the record as supporting same-sex marriage, has stuck by the policy of a people’s vote, expected after the next election.
“There is no greater virtue in a free vote here or a plebiscite, they are each means of resolving the matter,” Turnbull said in Parliament.
“One I grant you is more expensive but, nonetheless, it is a very legitimate and democratic way of dealing with it.”
sportsbet.com.au believes same sex marriage being legalised ahead of the next election is still unlikely, pricing a yes vote at $3 and a no vote at $1.33.
The spill was a fatal blow for Abbott, but Shorten’s grip on the Labor leadership is also on life support.
Shorten has drifted in the market to remain as Labor leader at the next election, but is still the favourite at $1.50, while Tanya Plibersek is the outright second favourite at $4, ahead of Anthony Albanese ($7.50) and Chris Bowen ($10).
WilliamHill.com.au political markets
Malcolm’s Reign as PM?
2015 ($15)
2016 ($2.75 @ WilliamHill.com)
2017 ($8)
2018 ($9)
2019 ($5)
2020 ($5.50)
2021 ($13)
Still PM in 2022 ($6)
Tony Abbott to quit?
YES ($3*)
*Fails to contest seat of Warringah
sportsbet.com.au political markets
Sworn-in government
Coalition ($1.40 @ Sportsbet.com.au)
ALP ($2.75)
Month of next election
September 2016 ($4 @ Sportsbet.com.au)
August 2016 ($5)
March 2016 ($6)
October 2015 ($8)
April 2016 ($8)
October 2016 ($9)
November 2015
July 2016 ($10)
February 2016 ($10)
June 2016 ($11)
November 2016 ($15)
January 2016 ($15)
December 2016 ($21)
December 2015 ($34)
January 2017 ($51)
Liberal Party to be allowed a conscience vote on same sex marriage
Yes ($1.17)
No ($4.50)
Same sex marriage to be legalised by next election
No ($1.33)
Yes ($3)
Labor leader at the next election
Bill Shorten ($1.50)
Tanya Plibersek ($4)
Anthony Albanese ($7.50)
Chris Bowen ($10)
Jason Clare ($21)
Others quoted
