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Ladder position
Essendon Bombers: 18th
Brisbane Lions: 17th
Season record
Essendon Bombers: 1-15
Brisbane Lions: 1-15
Last five match results
Essendon Bombers: LLLLL
Brisbane Lions: LLLLL
Head-to-head odds
Essendon Bombers: $1.55 with CrownBet.com.au
Brisbane Lions: $2.45
Line betting
Essendon Bombers: -11.5 ($1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au)
Brisbane Lions: +11.5 ($1.92)
IN an epic battle for who will be the worst side in the AFL in 2016, the Brisbane Lions head to Melbourne for a date with the Essendon Bombers.
The Bombers have been decimated by the supplements saga that saw 12 of their best players suspended, which has forced them to use top-up players discarded from other clubs and promoted from the VFL.
The Lions just stink, to put it bluntly.
Rumours of coach Justin Leppitsch’s impending demise grow louder by the day and a loss to the Bombers would be disastrous to him.
But, if you look at the form and the two sides’ ability to compete in games, they are poles apart.
The Bombers were expected to drop off in the back end of the season and be routinely slaughtered by opponents.
And they’d have every right to let that occur, given their thin talent pool and having had almost no preseason together after the turmoil.
But that has not happened.
While they have just a single win in 2016, they almost snatched another from Greater Western Sydney a month ago, lost by just 11 points against St. Kilda and then pushed Richmond all the way on the weekend before finally succumbing, 16.6 (102) to 11.17 (83).
In that match, Zach Merrett added to his remarkable story with a monster 34-disposal game, backing up from the week before when he had 36 against the Saints. He had 10 tackles to go with seven marks and has now collected 30 or more disposals seven times this season.
While the supplements saga has almost brought the club to its knees, the suspension of other players has done wonders for Merrett’s career.
He is $1.62 with Sportsbet.com.au to have 30 or more disposals and that feels like a long way over the odds, given how poor Brisbane are. We expect him to run riot.
The Bombers have unearthed another gem in goal sneak Orazio Fantasia.
The young gun was in superb form on the weekend, booting three goals. He could just as easily have had five or six, given he also kicked three behinds.
Fantasia has had a brilliant last four rounds, but is only going at 50 per cent from his 22 scoring shots.
He kicked 4.4 against the Giants, 1.1 against West Coast, and then went back-to-back with 3.3 against both St. Kilda and Richmond.
He might have the best name in the AFL too and, given how well his is going, is well worth a your punting dollar at the $9 quote.
The Lions – well, they have been the disappointment of the season.
While it is well known that they have struggled to hold onto their young talent, with Melbourne clubs always circling, Brisbane have become a basket case.
You’d be hard pressed, outside of Tom Rockliff and Dayne Zorko, to find an elite player in the lineup.
And youngsters like Josh Schache are still a long way off being competitive at the top level.
They had a crack against Giants last week, but never looked anywhere near competitive enough in a 22.14 (146) to 9.13 (67) loss.
They allowed GWS to kick 10 goals in an embarrassing second quarter, but were OK outside of that.
Ever the accumulator, Rockliff had another superb game with 34 disposals and two goals, while Zorko continued his brilliant season with 28.
It falls off a long way from there, with Pearce Hanley next best at 23 touches.
Rockliff and Schache were the only multiple goal kickers with two each as the Lions simply lacked the firepower to go with GWS.
We say it’s time to pick your poison in the first goalscorer and possession markets for the Lions – Zorko or Rockliff?
Zorko is $13 to kick the first goal, having found himself spending more time in the midfield due to the Lions’ lack of cattle. He has just two goals in his past five matches after booting 15 in his first nine.
Rockliff doesn’t have quite the goal kicking pedigree of Zorko, hence why he is out at $23, but he managed two on the weekend after not troubling the scorers for four matches.
On the possession counter, Rockliff is $1.36 to have 30 or more disposals. It feels a little skinny when you consider that he has gone under 30 just once in his past eight matches (if you exclude his nine disposals against Port when he got injured), but it’s a likely pick nonetheless.
Zorko is $1.53 to get 25 or more possessions and we reckon that is just about the bet of the weekend. Since moving into the midfield, ‘Tinka’ has had 25 or more in four of his last five games. He is around the footy more and that is providing him with more opportunities to find it.
Bombers vs. Lions props betting tips
Odds provided by Sportsbet.com.au
First goalscorer
Essendon Bombers:
Brisbane Lions:
- Dayne Zorko – $13
- Tom Rockliff – $23
Possession tips
Essendon Bombers:
- Zach Merrett to have 30 or more disposals – $1.62
Brisbane Lions:
- Dayne Zorko to have 25 or more disposals – $1.53
- Tom Rockliff to have 30 or more disposals – $1.36
Match predictions
Match result: Essendon to win ($1.55 with CrownBet.com.au)
Line betting: Essendon -11.5 ($1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au)
It’s a long trip from Brisbane to Melbourne and the rag tag Lions haven’t looked like winning a game in months. They are the $1.66 favourite with Sportsbet.com.au to finish on the bottom of the ladder, with the Bombers $2.25. If (when) they lose this game, that will change dramatically. Kicking goals has been a massive problem for both of these teams this season but, outside of Zorko and Rockliff, the Lions don’t seem to have the weapons to go with even a bunch of has-beens and never-weres at Essendon. Bombers by four or five goals at Etihad and it’s maybe goodbye Leppa.