Italy – $1.85 at WilliamHill.com
Draw – $3.40 at Sportsbet
Sweden – $5.50 at www.Bet365.com
There were plenty of highlights and upsets in the first round of fixtures, but Italy are the biggest movers thus far at the 2016 European Championships.
The Azzurri’s resounding win over Group E favourites Belgium saw their price plummet from $17 to $12 in the Euro 2016 outright odds at Sportsbet.
That would suggest there’s been some hefty support for a side that some pundits have called the least impressive Italy outfit since the 1970s.
It was a very slick opening performance from Antonio Conte’s charges, although some loose second-half defending went unpunished by a wasteful Belgian attack.
Graziano Pelle was among the scorers, sealing the game with a superbly taken volley before hobbling off late with a foot complaint.
The Southampton striker was in some doubt for Friday’s clash, but he has now received the all-clear after undergoing tests earlier in the week.
“Pelle underwent tests for a knock on his foot sustained on Monday. The tests results have been negative,” the Italian Football Federation confirmed via Twitter.
The presence of an in-form Pelle could bode ill for Sweden, who were lucky to get out of their opening fixture with a point.
Were it not for an obstinate crossbar and John O’Shea’s inability to finish from six yards, the Scandinavians would have conceded four or five times to a dominant Ireland outfit.
Of particular concern was the minimal influence of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who was well held by an organised Irish defence and forced to feed off half-chances.
The Italians will look to do the same to a player Daniele De Rossi compared to one of the all-time greats – Dutch hero Marco van Basten.
“Maybe they have less talent than Belgium so they will probably wait in their half and try to play counterattack with long balls,” the Roma midfielder told reporters.
“Ibrahimovic is the best forward since the time of Van Basten, except for Ronaldo, but they are different players.
“We are a little bit scared of his power and his talent but we can beat them the same way that we can beat Belgium – with organisation and by working hard on the training pitch.”
Graziano Pelle first goal markets
Some said it was a sign of the national team’s decline that a journeyman striker from a mid-table Premier League club could lead the line for Italy.
But Pelle, while blessed with size and strength, isn’t just another hack centre-forward who’s better with his elbows than his feet.
On his day, the 30-year-old from Lecce is as hard to handle as any striker in Europe – as Belgium found out on Monday.
If he gets service and support, he could make a real meal of a Swedish back line that could barely cope with mighty Ireland.
Pelle to score the first Italy goal – $4.25 (CrownBet)
Pelle to score a header – $11 (William Hill)
Pelle to score from outside the penalty area – $15 (William Hill)
Pelle to score in both halves – $21 (William Hill)
Pelle to score inside 10 minutes – $29 (William Hill)
Zlatan Ibrahimovic betting specials
This is the kind of fixture where Sweden need their superstar striker to step up and take charge.
Zlatan banged in 38 goals for Paris Saint-Germain this season, albeit in a division that has become one of the least competitive in Europe.
His appetite for the big games has been questioned in the past, but we all know what this guy can do if he gets even the faintest whiff of a goalscoring opportunity.
Although he will be closely marked from the very start, Italy’s second half against Belgium showed up a few cracks that a player of Zlatan’s calibre can ruthlessly exploit.
Ibrahimovic to score anytime – $3.40 (CrownBet)
Ibrahimovic to score the first goal – $7 (Sportsbet)
Ibrahimovic to score first and Sweden to win – $11 (William Hill)
Ibrahimovic to score two or more goals – $13 (William Hill)
Ibrahimovic to score a hat-trick – $101 (William Hill)