THE NRL regular season is a 26-round grind and the best eight teams of the competition have been found and will compete for the premiership starting this Friday.
The Roosters won the minor premiership after winning 18 games and they will play the fourth placed Melbourne Storm to see which team will get a second round bye.
The Broncos and the Cowboys will do battle on Saturday night in an all-Queensland affair where the higher-ranked Broncos have taken most of the money at Sportsbet.com.au.
The bottom four teams comprise of Bulldogs vs. Dragons and Sharks vs. Rabbitohs. The Bulldogs are expected to take care of business against the Dragons which only just held onto their top eight spot.
The Sharks find themselves in a solid position to make a run at their first NRL premiership, but the Rabbitohs are defending champs and they welcome back Greg Inglis.
2015 NRL premiership winner market
There hasn’t been much movement in the market over the last few weeks, but punters are getting value with some of the competitions best teams.
The $2.95 for the Roosters is quite short on face value considering they are missing Mitchell Pearce for possible the opening game, but they have been the dominant team in the second half of the season.
Value lies with both Queensland sides with the Broncos representing $4. The Brisbane-based side only gave up the minor premiership late in the season and they are relatively injury free.
The Melbourne Storm and Canterbury Bulldogs are usually well favoured in the market and they are tough to beat at finals time, but this season hasn’t been their best and the betting represents that.
The unfavoured teams include the out-of-form Rabbitohs ($23), the Sharks at $29 which are seeking their first NRL premiership, and the Dragons which are no chance at $81.
2015 NRL premiership winner odds:
Roosters – $2.95
Broncos – $4
Cowboys – $5
Storm – $7
Bulldogs – $9
Rabbitohs – $23
Sharks – $29
Dragons – $81
Place any head-to-head bet (Up to $100) with Sportsbet.com.au this week and if your team leads at halftime, but loses, your money will be refunded back into your account.
NRL Week 1 head-to-head betting
The NRL have been using a modified playoff system which seems to be working nicely. The top four and bottom four teams are split into groups, with a format as follows.
1 vs. 4 (winner gets second round bye, loser plays the 2 vs. 3 loser)
2 vs. 3
5 vs. 8
6 vs. 7
This ensures the first round of the finals is an exciting one. If the Roosters played the Dragons, it wouldn’t be much of a contest. This allows the best teams to go at it and none of the top four teams can be eliminated in week 1.
Friday, September 11, 7:55pm – Roosters vs. Storm
Roosters – $1.40
Storm – $3
Not surprisingly, the Roosters have attracted plenty of money from punters. The tri-colours have looked the best team in the competition over the last few weeks and the Storm, whilst a good side, is expected to be playing in the second round.
As kickoff draws nearer, we’re expecting the Roosters line to shorten up fractionally and the Storm to push out to around the $3.20 mark.
Saturday, September 12, 5:50pm – Bulldogs vs. Dragons
Bulldogs – $1.30
Dragons – $3.60
This game should be one-way traffic for the Bulldogs, which have looked like a solid finals hope in the latter half of the season.
The Dragons have been the opposite and they actually lead the competition during the first part of the season. The mighty red and white V will have to be firing on all cylinders if they are to topple the Bulldogs in this game.
The Bulldogs are short with bookmaker WilliamHill.com.au at $1.30, but we can’t see the Dragons coming for any support – they are simply not good enough.
Saturday, September 12, 7:55pm – Broncos vs. Cowboys
Broncos – $1.60
Cowboys – $2.40 at CrownBet.com.au
When we started writing this article, the Broncos were paying $1.57 and have already moved out to $1.60. This is the one head-to-head betting line that we predicted would move closer to the $1.91/$1.91 mark and punters are getting in early.
The Broncos have been one of the most consistent teams all season and they deserve to be favoured here, but the price around the Cowboys screams value at $2.40. We’re predicting that they will end up around the $2.20 mark in what should be a classic all-Queensland battle.
Sunday, September 13, 4:10pm – Sharks vs. Rabbitohs
Sharks – $1.77
Rabbitohs – $2.10
Punters are finding it tough to back the Cronulla Sharks with any confidence. They have never won a premiership, they lost their last game to the Sea Eagles and the Rabbitohs welcome Greg Inglis back into the side.
That’s plenty going against them and they will need the experience of Paul Gallen to get them across the line. They have plenty of talent in the backs and have played well this season, but the experience of this Rabbitohs outfit might give them problems.
The Rabbitohs are the defending champions and many thought they could repeat in 2015, but the season has been plugged with poor performances against weaker teams.
Greg Inglis is back and they need his skills at the fullback position. This game could go either way, as the market suggests.
